The NBA Draft Lottery Explained
Tuesday Night Will Be A Time For Celebration For Some And Disappointment For Others
The NBA Draft Lottery was created in 1985, to allow each of the teams who missed the playoffs a chance to have the first pick in the college draft. As the years go by, the league has added new teams, and we have had an increase in players entering the draft. Because of those reasons, it has changed how the picks are distributed.
How Is The Lottery Conducted?
The Lottery is conducted by a drawing of ping-pong balls numbered 1 thru 14 and placed inside a machine. Every 20 seconds, a ping-pong ball comes out of the machine with 10 seconds between each ball. Each of the teams is assigned a set of four-digit combination numbers. Whatever team has the four-ball combination that comes out of the machine will win the first overall pick in the NBA Draft.
The process will continue for three more sets of four numbers and that will determine picks 2 thru 4. If a combination comes out for a team that has already been drawn, that set will be discarded and a new set will be drawn. If a team misses out on the top-4 picks, the rest of their picks from 5 to 14 will be based on this season's record.
Who Can Attend?
Each team that is in the lottery will have two representatives, one that is in the room when the ping-pong balls are being released and one representative that will be on stage when the envelopes are opened and announced on TV. A representative from the firm Ernst & Young will stuff the envelopes and seal them before giving them to NBA Deputy Commissioner and COO Mark Tatum to announce on ESPN on Tuesday night.
There is no contact allowed from the team representatives in the Lottery room to the ones on the stage.
Who Has The Best Chance To Win?
Until 2019, the team with the worst record had nearly a 25% shot at winning the lottery. But due to provide more balance and to stop teams from “Tanking” (losing on purpose for those who don’t know), they balanced it so that the three worst teams will share the same odds at 14%.
The team with the worst record (This year Detroit has the worst record) can pick no worse than 5th overall. Here is the NBA Draft Odds Chart for 2023 (Thanks Tankathon.com)
When teams have the same standings, like Houston/San Antonio, Indiana/Washington, and Chicago/Oklahoma City, a coin toss determines who gets the better pick. In cases like Houston and San Antonio, the coin flip has extra meaning. The loser (San Antonio) could fall out of the top 5.
Now Dallas and Chicago have red highlighted numbers by some of those percentages on the chart. The red means if the pick falls in the red spots, then that pick will belong to another team because of a previous trade.
Dallas would only keep their pick if it is in the top 10. If the pick falls out of the top 10, then New York will have the pick because of the Kristaps Porzingis trade. Chicago will send their pick to Orlando if it is not in the top 4 because of the Nikola Vucevic trade.
Does Getting The Number 1 Pick Always Equal Success?
Winning the first overall pick normally allows you to draft the future Rookie of the Year. Paolo Banchero became the twenty-second Rookie of the Year selection this past season. Since the common era of NBA Drafts, there have been two Rookie of the Year selections that were selected in the 10-20 range (Mark Jackson and Michael Carter-Williams) and one selected in the second round (Malcolm Brogdon).
Over the last 15 Drafts, only 10 top overall picks have made at least one all-star team. On that list, only Derrick Rose won a Most Valuable Player award.
There has been a 24% success rate of lottery picks making at least one all-star team, while non-lottery first-round picks are at 7% and all non-lottery picks are at 3.9%
If your favorite team doesn’t win the lottery or have a pick in the top-4 (Picking 4th overall has produced 9 All-Stars), the team with the 9th overall pick has had the most success in drafting an all-star. Nine players have made the All-Star being picked at the ninth overall spot since 1985. While, the 8th overall pick has produced the fewest with only one (Vin Baker in 1993).
Which Team Has Been The Luckiest?
During the NBA Lottery Era, the Cleveland Cavaliers have won most of them with 5.
Which Team Has Had The Largest Jump In The Lottery?
Since the NBA went to a weighted Lottery system in 1990, only three teams in history have won the lottery with less than a 2% chance.
Orlando Magic (1.57%) in 1993- They drafted Chris Webber
Chicago Bulls (1.57%) in 2008- They drafted Derrick Rose
Cleveland Cavaliers (1.7%) in 2014- They drafted Andrew Wiggins
Three other teams have won the lottery with less than 5%.
New Jersey Nets (4.4%) in 2000- They drafted Kenyon Martin
Los Angeles Clippers (2.8%) in 2011- That pick was redirected to Cleveland (Baron Davis/Mo Williams trade) and that pick was used to selecting Kyrie Irving
Under the revised lottery weighted system (per 2019), only New Orleans (6%) is the only team with under double-digit odds to win the Lottery. They drafted Zion Williamson.
What Is The Prize For Winning The 2023 NBA Lottery?
The winner gets to draft this guy: